Potentially Historic Blizzard Taking Aim on New England ~Bob Henson @wunderground @DisasterMapnet

Posted on January 26, 2015 By

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The densely populated area from New York City to Boston could experience one of its ten biggest snowstorms on record early this week, as a textbook nor’easter takes shape over the next 48 hours. While local details are bound to evolve somewhat as the storm develops, the models are now in strong, consistent agreement on a potentially crippling snowstorm. Blizzard watches were hoisted on Sunday morning from eastern New Jersey to northeast Massachusetts, including the New York, Providence, and Boston metropolitan areas.

“Plumes” of projected total snowfall for Boston, based on an ensemble of more than 20 model solutions compiled at 09Z on Sunday, January 25 by NOAA’s Short Range Ensemble Forecast. The dark black line indicates the model mean, which suggests that 25-26” of snow is a strong possibility for Boston. Photo credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

“Plumes” of projected total snowfall for Boston, based on an ensemble of more than 20 model solutions compiled at 09Z on Sunday, January 25 by NOAA’s Short Range Ensemble Forecast. The dark black line indicates the model mean, which suggests that 25-26” of snow is a strong possibility for Boston. Photo credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

Despite the increasing skill of computer forecast models in recent years, this week’s threat emerged remarkably quickly. As recently as Friday, the model consensus was for a weaker storm that would sweep through the region from west to east, then strengthen well offshore. One of the first models to switch gears was the ECMWF, whose operational run issued at 00Z Friday night highlighted the risk of a potential blockbuster storm for the Northeast U.S. By Saturday morning, most other models had quickly joined the bandwagon. “All operational models now have the forecast of a major snowstorm/blizzard,” said NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Sunday morning. Read more.

Stay tuned to DisasterMap.net and Weather Channel.

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